Palm Bay, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

791
FXUS62 KMLB 091813
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
213 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

- Breezy to windy conditions again this afternoon, leading to
  sensitive fire weather conditions across parts of the interior,
  and producing a dangerous southward flowing longshore current at
  the beaches.

- There is a low to moderate chance for onshore moving showers and
  isolated lightning storms (late afternoon/tonight) along the
  coast.

- Chilly April nights this weekend behind another cold front with
  low humidity.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Current-Tonight...Near to just below seasonal temperatures this
afternoon with afternoon maxes in the M-U70s at the coast and U70s
to around 80F into the interior. With the pressure gradient
tightening between high pressure over the Gulf and low pressure
north of the Bahamas, frequent northerly wind gusts are forecast 25
to 30 mph across the interior and 30-35 mph at the coast - nearing
Windy Advisory criteria. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged
today. Winds veer N/NE this evening while very slowly diminishing
into late evening. Conditions remain dry across the interior with
min afternoon RH values falling into the M-U30s north/west of I-4.

An upper trough will swing across the FL peninsula with 500 mb temps
(~ -14C). PWATs remain unimpressive (0.80-1.00") - highest along the
coast, but do surge (only) slightly higher tonight. We advertise 20-
30pct PoPs across coastal counties for onshore-moving showers later
this afternoon, and a bit higher tonight (40pct) at the coast. We
throw in a complimentary ISOLD lightning storm or two as well -
generally late in the day and tonight.

Overnight lows L-M60s at the coast (& Orlando Metro) with U50s to
L60s W of I-95. Winds do settle to 5-10 mph over the interior and 10-
15 mph along the coast overnight.

Thu-Fri...The next front drops across the area late Fri/Fri night,
pushed southward by deep troughing aloft across the eastern CONUS.
While this boundary will provide additional cool/drier air over the
area, PWATs are unimpressive and generally a less than 20pct chance
of rain exists late Fri/Fri night, highest chances north of I-4 and
the adjacent coastal waters. Weak high pressure exists across the
area ahead of the boundary. Northeast winds on Thu (10-15 mph),
perhaps a little higher along the coast with some higher gusts,
light and variable winds Thu night, and SW 10-15 mph on Fri. Perhaps
ISOLD showers along the coast on Thu, dry conditions Thu night and
for at least most of the day on Fri. Near normal temps on Thu (U70s-
L80s) with Thu night lows U50s to L60s, then warmer pre-frontal on
Fri (L-M80s) and M-U50s for lows Fri overnight/Sat morning.

The Weekend-Early Next Week...Previous Modified...The sharp trough
overhead Sat swings offshore, with broad mid-level ridging building
from the Gulf to Florida (FL). At the surface, very dry conditions
as high pressure builds towards FL behind Fri night`s cold front.
Still very good agreement from global models and their ensembles for
the center of the surface high to move over central FL by Mon, then
shift offshore Tue ahead of the next cold front arriving sometime
late Tue into early Wed. A few chilly overnight/early mornings on
tap, especially Sun/Mon morning`s where lows are forecast to fall
into the L-M50s across much of the area, and even to the U40s in the
usually colder interior locations. Daytime temperatures near to
slightly below normal with highs in the 70s (near 80F for a few) for
most through the weekend, then temperatures look to crank up pretty
fast through the first half of the week, with highs in the U70s
(coast) - M80s (interior) Mon, and well into the 80s/near 90F across
much the area Tue/Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Remainder of Afternoon-Tonight...Boating conditions quickly
deteriorating (hazardous) this afternoon and started Small Craft
Advisory for the Treasure Coast marine legs several hours early as
winds have been quickly increasing in response to the weak low
pressure development. This is occurring along a stalled frontal
boundary extending from the Florida Straits to the Bahamas,
freshening onshore winds and building seas, especially in the Gulf
Stream. Northerly winds 15-25 kts with frequent higher gusts into
this evening, shift to the NE-ENE while easing to 10-20 kts
overnight. Combination of winds and swell will build very
choppy/square seas across the local Atlc waters from to 4-8 ft in
the evening, peaking at 6-11 ft late tonight, highest in the Gulf
Stream. There is also a 20-50 pct chance of showers and a 20 pct
chance of lightning storms.

Thu-Mon...Conditions slowly improve through the day Thu as weak high
pressure briefly builds into the area, but boating remains poor to
hazardous as very choppy seas 7-11 ft early Thu morning subside
slowly. NE winds 10-20 kts early Thu morning ease through the day,
becoming light/variable Thu night. A reinforcing cold front pushes
through Fri night. Winds become SW/W 10-20 kts Fri during the day.
Deep high pressure builds over the area behind the latest front
through the weekend, becoming centered overhead by Mon. Seas subside
to 3-5 ft by Fri morning, diminish to 2-3 ft by Mon morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

TAFs begin with VFR conditions with high pressure (~1025mb) over the
SE US and weak low pressure (1014mb) over the SW Atlantic. N winds at
14-20kts with gusts to 22-30kts are expected to weaken after 02Z from
the N at 5-10kts before increasing to 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts
from the NE after 15Z. TEMPO MVFR CIGs are forecast at the
coastal TAF sites mainly between 04-10Z with isolated showers.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

Remainder of Afternoon...Northerly winds windy/gusty (25-30 mph -
interior) and (30-35 mph - coast). Burning should strongly be
discouraged! Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms (into
tonight) are forecast to brush the coast, with mainly dry
conditions inland. Min RH values will dip below 40 pct over Lake
County but hold above 50 pct along the coast. Near Red Flag
criteria possible over Lake County this afternoon with RHs
combined with moderate-strong winds and a Moderate FPF.

Fri-Tue...A cold front pushing through late Fri into early Sat is
expected to reinforce already dry conditions. Min RHs less then 40
pct across the interior Fri are forecast to be in the 20s/30s
through the weekend and into early next week. Winds generally 10 mph
or less forecast through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  77  60  83 /  30  10   0  20
MCO  63  79  61  83 /  10  10   0  10
MLB  64  78  62  83 /  40  20   0  10
VRB  63  79  61  84 /  40  20   0  10
LEE  60  80  60  81 /   0  10   0  10
SFB  62  80  60  84 /  20  10   0  10
ORL  63  80  62  83 /  10  10   0  10
FPR  63  79  61  83 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ552-570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ555-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
AVIATION...Fehling